April 2022

Air cargo volume shows no signs of abatement  

The factors behind the current space and rate crunch, being the lack of flights and grounding of 747 cargo operators, remain a challenge. In addition, the Covid lockdowns in China are also now contributing, with airport shutdowns and airlines cutting flights. 

Recent increases in passenger flights are a step in the right direction to easing delays and costs; however, we still have some way to go. Australia’s largest volume airport, Sydney, is currently managing around 50 passenger flights per day, which is still significantly less than the average pre covid number of 110. ( Sydney Departures &Arrivals)

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Perth is still lonely operating with around 10 flights per day.( Perth Departures&Arrival)

While the additional flights have helped move additional volume, all aircraft are operating at maximum capacity, holding freight rates high.

Oil pricing has seen some incredible price fluctuations, generated more from market speculation on recent global events than shortages, and is now sitting at 102 USD per barrel at the time of writing.  
Aviation fuel has followed this cost with a lagging price, and we are now seeing the peaks of the recent market costs. (See the chart ) 

Australia　

Passenger flights have begun returning in more significant numbers, however, we are still at around 45% of pre-covid levels.
This year’s outlook remains challenging, as it could be some time before we see aircraft arrivals return to any normality.  

Inbound freighters are still overcapacity, with the bulk of the lifting coming from Emirates, Qantas and Singapore airlines. There is still no firm news of the return of Cathay Pacific freighters to service Australia from Europe and America. 

New Zealand 
There is still a small change for New Zealand, with heavily restricted flights inbound, choking critical routes. Qantas has begun wide-body flights which have helped capacity, though space is still constricted until flights to NZ become more common. 
There has been an uptick in air cargo brought into Australia, then moving sea freight to NZ. There are some savings over pure air for this option. Please get in contact with your Account Manager or Customer Service Representative for more information.  

Asia　　

•    Asia rates remain high and highly volatile. Chinese carriers are heavily limited on movement into ANZ. Singapore Airlines have the greatest volume ability, however, are facing massive challenges in Singapore, with staff capacity severely restricted with Covid conditions causing transit warehouse shutdowns.  
•    Shipments are generally on a  spot basis, with cargo density being a significant factor as carriers try to maximise KG on their passenger craft.
•    There is no short-term relief on the horizon, with no near-term news on the return of Chinese carriers in bulk to ANZ.
•    Shutdowns of Chinese cities, most notably Shanghai, are presenting challenges to move air cargo in a timely and efficient manner. North China will be challenging until the end of the lockdown.

USA
•    US space remains heavily restricted. However, some additional space has opened up on the west coast, which is being soaked up by the drop-off in carriers running via Asia.
•    We expect the US market to remain restricted until mass flights begin across the pacific, plus the return in carriers via Asia, particularly Cathay Pacific. 
•    Qantas freighters, servicing New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, are at maximum utilisation, with costs running high on these flights, however, they remain effective in moving volume. 
•    At present, we aren’t experiencing backlogs. For any large shipments, please check with your local Account Manager for any potential challenges. 

Europe          
             
•    Costs have increased from Western Europe, with longer flights and delays in transit hubs, along with the sharp rise in fuel prices and earlier mentioned sanctions. 
•    General cargo space is now booked out several weeks in advance, with express options now moving out to a week.  
•    Backlogs are now common, and these volumes ebb and flow week to week. The Easter period has eased loads, we expect the next two weeks to be reasonable for cargo flow before another ramp-up
•    Factor in some additional transit time after ANZAC day, for any highly urgent shipment, please talk to your account manager or customer service representative.

For more information about our Air Freight services, please click Rohlig Air Freight.                                                         

 (Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=TVC%3AUSOIL)　　　

Australia　

Passenger flights have begun returning in greater number, however we are still at around 45% of pre-covid levels.

This year’s outlook remains challenging, as it could be some time before we see aircraft arrivals return to any kind of normality.  

Inbound freighters are still over capacity, with the bulk of the lifting coming from Emirates, Qantas and Singapore airlines. There is still no firm news of the return of Cathay pacific freighters to service AU from Europe and America.

New Zealand

There is still little change for New Zealand, with heavily restricted flights inbound, chocking critical routes. Qantas have begun wide-body flights ( Book the QF 143 if you’d like to fly trans-tas more comfortably ) which has helped capacity, though space is still constricted until flights to NZ become more common

There has been an uptick in air cargo brought into Australia then moving sea freight to NZ. There are some savings over pure air for this option. Please get in contact with your Account Manager or Customer Service Representative​​​​​​​ for more information. 

Asia　　

• Asia rates still remain high and highly volatile. Chinese carriers are heavily limited on movement into ANZ, Singapore airlines have the greatest volume ability, however, are facing massive challenges in Singapore, with staff capacity severely restricted with Covid conditions causing transit warehouse shutdowns.  
• Shipments are generally on a  spot basis, with cargo density being a big factor as carriers try to maximise KG on their passenger craft.
• There is no short-term relief on the horizon, with no near-term news on the return of Chinese carriers in bulk to ANZ.
• Shutdowns of Chinese cities, most notably Shanghai, are presenting challenges to move air cargo in a timely and efficient manner. North China will be challenging until the lock downs end

USA

• US space remains heavily restricted. However, some additional space has opened up on the west coast, which is being soaked up by the drop-off in carriers running via Asia.
• We expect the US market to remain restricted until mass flights begin across the pacific, plus the return in carriers via Asia, particularly Cathay Pacific.
• Qantas freighters, servicing New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, are at maximum utilisation, with costs running high on these flights, however, they remain effective in moving volume.
• At present, we aren’t experiencing backlogs. For any large shipments please check with your local account manager for any potential challenges.

Europe                       

• Costs have increased from Western Europe, with longer flights and delays in transit hubs, along with the sharp rise in fuel prices and earlier mentioned sanctions.
• General cargo space is now booked out several weeks in advance, with express options now moving out to a week.  
• Backlogs are now common, and these volumes ebb and flow week to week. The easter period has eased loads, we expect the next two weeks to be reasonable for cargo flow before another ramp up
• Factor in some additional transit time after ANZAC day, for any highly urgent shipment, please talk to your account manager or customer service representative.

For more information about our Air Freight services, please click Rohlig Air Freight.            

• Sea Freight carriers have suspended services to/from Russia and Ukraine.

• Sea Freight fuel price increase has led to a slight adjustment on BAF surcharges.

• Fuel prices are increasing and war risk surcharges are being applied in some cases. Air freight rates are rising for East and Westbound routes between Southeast Asia and Europe.

• Demand for air freight remains high despite diminishing capacity to/from Europe due to cancelled or rerouted flights around Russia.

Malaysia

• Operations may slow down during the May 1 holiday and Eid al-Fitr in early May. Be advised that there may be a cargo rush following these holidays.

Indonesia

• Road restrictions will be applied between April 28-May 1 and May 7-9 in advance of the Eid al-Fitr holiday (May 2-3). Please be aware that operations will be limited during this national holiday.

Vietnam

• Fuel surcharges are increasing, with transport fees and all commodity prices increasing by 10-30%.

• The Loadstar has reported plans for the expansion of the Cai Mep container port close to Ho Chi Minh City.

Singapore

• Operations may slow down during the May 1 holiday and Eid al-Fitr in early May. Be advised that there may be a cargo rush following these holidays.

Thailand

• Air and sea freight demand will be high in the first two weeks of April due to the approaching New Year holiday from April 13-17.

• Air freight rates have increased by around 20% compared to the previous period.